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TROPICAL UPDATE: Potential development as a disturbance approaches the Caribbean Sea

There is a 60% chance of development in the Atlantic Basin over the next five days. No threats to Texas at this time.
Credit: Mariah Gallegos

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — We are monitoring Invest-94L, an area with a 60% chance of development over the next five days and a 20% chance of developing in 48 hours.

Credit: Mariah Gallegos

This tropical wave is currently producing disorganized storms, but as it moves westward it could strengthen to a tropical depression as it nears the Caribbean through July 4th weekend. Heading into July this is an area where we expect to see development, based on climate trends from previous seasons. Storm that develop in this area can move into the Gulf of Mexico, but the steering winds can also take them north along the East Coast.

Credit: Kiii

Right now there is a lot of wind shear in this area. If the wave can survive there will be less shear in the Caribbean Sea by July 28. 

Credit: Kiii

The steering winds don't appear to have a strong influence for any tropical developments to make there way into the gulf. This will be worth watching, but it's too far out to be be concerned or worried about it impacting Texas.

RELATED: 2022 Hurricane Guide: Download Now


In June, climatology says the most likely areas for tropical development are in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, or off the Southeast US Coast.

Credit: Alan Holt
June Tropical Climatology

2022 KIII Hurricane Season Forecast

Credit: Alan Holt
2022 KIII Hurricane Forecast

2022 NOAA Hurricane Season Forecast

Credit: Alan Holt
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast

Hurricane Season runs from June 1 - November 30

Credit: Alan Holt

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